DIAGNOSTIC INVESTIGATION OF SIMULATION BIAS WITH THE GRAPES-MESO MODEL FOR A TORRENTIAL RAIN CASE     

孔荣  王建捷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):69-72

In this paper, the numerical simulation bias of the non-hydrostatic version GRAPES-Meso (Mesoscale of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) at the resolution of 0.18o for a torrential rain case, which happened in May 31st to June 1st 2005 over Hunan province, are diagnosed and investigated by using the radiosondes, intensive surface observation, and the operational global analysis data, and the sensitivity experimental results as well. It is shown in the result that the GRAPES-Meso could reproduce quite well the main features of large-cale circulation and the distribution of the accumulated 24h precipitation and the key locations of the torrential rainfall are captured reasonably well by the model. However, bias exist in the simulation of the mesoscale features of the torrential rain and details of the relevant systems, for example, the simulated rainfall that is too earlier in model integration and remarkable underprediction of the peak value of rainfall rates over the heaviest rainfall region, the weakness of the upper jet simulation and the overprediction of the south-west wind in the lower troposphere etc. The investigation reveals that the sources of the simulation bias are different. The erroneous model rainfall in the earlier integration stage over the heaviest rainfall region is induced by the model initial condition bias of the wind field at about 925hPa over the torrential rainfall region, where the bias grow rapidly and spread upward to about 600hPa level within the few hours into the integration and result in abnormal convergence of the wind and moisture, and thus the unreal rainfall over that region. The large bias on the simulated rainfall intensity over the heaviest rainfall region might be imputed to the following combined factors of (1) the simulation bias on the strength and detailed structures of the upper-level jet core which bring about significant underpredictions of the dynamic conditions (including upper-level divergence and the upward motion) for heavy rainfall due to unfavorable mesoscale vertical coupling between the strong upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence; and (2) the inefficient coupling of the cumulous parameterization scheme and the explicit moisture in the integration, which causes the failure of the explicit moisture scheme in generating grid-scale rainfall in a certain extent through inadequate convective adjustment and feedback to the grid-scale. In addition, the interaction of the combined two factors could form a negative feedback to the rainfall intensity simulation, and eventually lead to the obvious underprediction of the rainfall rate.  相似文献   

基于RS&GIS的西部干旱区植被覆盖变化的研究     

穆增光  孔金玲 《地理空间信息》2007,5(5):66-69

以新疆阜康地区为研究区,利用遥感和GIS技术及数理统计学方法,利用ERDAS软件,通过对70年代MSS和2000年ETM影象的几何校正、图象增强、应用目视解译方法,在地理信息系统软件ArcGIS中编制两期生态景观图,利用矢栅转换和叠置功能来研究土地及植被类型的面积及空间分布状况在两期图中的变化,并通过土地利用与土地覆被变化来研究70年代到2000年西部干旱区土地及植被类型变化过程和趋势。  相似文献   

纳米级微粒地球化学测量中异常重现性研究     

刘应汉  赵传东  孔牧  张华  张勤  任天祥 《物探化探计算技术》2007,(Z1)

纳米级微粒测量是寻找隐伏矿的新方法,选取实地模拟实验和在已知隐伏矿区,利用液态捕集剂和等离子体质谱分析测试样品,进行重复测量试验,研究结果表明,不同成矿元素,在地表形成异常的运移富集速率不同,其运移速率主要取决于纳米级微粒本身的地球化学性质,地下上升气流、断裂等裂隙有利于微粒的上升运移富集;纳米级微粒地球化学重复测量时,异常可具有良好的重现性,但异常重现较常规气体缓慢,通常需要2~3个月。  相似文献   

松辽盆地北安地区断陷期构造特征的地震学证据及其油气意义          下载免费PDF全文

胡艳飞  于平  孔庆莹  王世煜 《地球物理学进展》2007,22(5):1455-1459

北安地区位于松辽盆地内的东北部,共有姚家组顶界、泉头组顶界、营城组顶界、基岩顶界四个主要地震反射层位,缺失登娄库组反射层.北安断陷期地层反射能量均较弱,且基本为中低频反射.北安断陷是北安地区最重要的一个断陷,北安断陷西侧发育有北安西断裂,走向北北东,在平面展布上近"S"型,主要发育于侏罗系地层;北安断陷东侧发育有北安东断裂,走向北北东,其特点是上逆下正,从姚家组断至侏罗系地层.北安地区发育有较大的正向反转构造.北安地区反转构造对油气成藏的影响较大,主要表现在:(1)反转构造为油气聚集提供了圈闭;(2)反转构造作用促进了油气再次运移;(3)反转构造作用使地层拱张,产生了许多断裂,改善了储集性能.  相似文献   

气候波动和土地覆盖变化下的黄河源区水资源预测   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

车骞  王根绪  孔福广  陈玲  姜秀娜 《水文》2007,27(2):11-15

以黄河源区为研究对象,以分布式水文模型SWAT为研究工具,建立不同气候波动和土地覆盖变化情景,模拟和预测未来水资源的变化。针对黄河源区特殊的下垫面条件,着重冰雪和冻土的水文过程调试,对模拟结果的评价显示,SWAT模型能够较好地模拟黄河源区的水资源变化。不同情景下演算得出的水资源量数据可信,具有一定的实用意义,随着认识的深入和模型结构以及参数的优化,模型在寒区水资源研究和管理中会发挥更大作用。  相似文献   

长江下游地区中生代构造活动与岩浆作用     

翁世劼  孔庆寿 《地球学报》1981,3(1):1-20

<正> 一、地质发育概况 长江下游地区在地质发育进程中历经了多次构造旋回,经受多期构造作用的迭加和改造。（一）前寒武纪；（二）古生代；（三）中生代。  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Water Level Under Interaction Between Runoff and Estuarine Dynamics in Tidal Reach of the Yangtze River     

雷智鹢  张金善  孔俊 《中国海洋工程》2009,23(3):543-551

The Yangtze Estuary, the largest estuary in China, is under an obvious interaction between runoff and astronomical tide. The research on the interaction is very important for the exploitation and utilization of water resources in this area. A horizontal 2D hydrodynamic numerical model is established and verified in the present study with the modeling range from Datong to the Yangtze Estuary. Based on the comparison of high water levels under the interaction between different runoff and estuarine dynamics, s...  相似文献   

Simplified Calculation Method and 3D Numerical Analysis for Pile Group Under Uplift Loading     

孔纲强  杨庆  刘汉龙  栾茂田 《中国海洋工程》2009,23(4):709-718

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基于RS和GIS的松花江流域植被覆盖动态变化研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭红  龚文峰  李雁  孔达  冯井泉 《地理信息世界》2009,7(3):60-65

利用遥感和地理信息系统技术对1989,1995年的Landsat TM数据和2002年Landsat ETM＋三期遥感数据进行处理,反演和计算松花江流域的归一化植被指数（NDVI）,在此基础上,获取研究区域植被覆盖度。在ArcGIS9.2软件空间分析模块的支持下,对研究区域三期植被覆盖影像进行叠加分析,以流域尺度和栅格尺度分析植被覆盖变化的时间和空间特性,获取研究区域植被覆盖度空间格局分布特征,为该区域植被覆盖度的自动化监测提供很好的技术支持。  相似文献   

一种滑坡变形监测综合技术的应用     

张军  徐景田  孔利明  冯刚 《北京测绘》2009,(2):47-50

现今监测方案的综合设计和监测数据管理与综合处理已成为变形监测技术发展的一种趋势。本文阐述了一种滑坡变形监测综合技术，结合此新技术在忠武输气管道干线忠县至宜昌段顺溪Ⅰ号滑坡上两年零四个月的实践，充分证明了此种技术的可行性。本文重点研究GPS技术在此变形监测过程中的具体应用。  相似文献